Final Predictions For the 2019 Oscar Nominations

It’s that time—Christmas Eve for Oscar pundits. What will the Academy Santa Claus bring them in the morning? Sure, they know what a lot of the presents will be before they open them. It’s a guarantee that “Roma,” “Black Panther,” and “A Star is Born” will be multiple nominees in just under 24 hours. The question is how big will they be? And what about the outliers, the potential nominees who will be unsure of whether to pop the champagne at 5:30am or just go back to sleep? There seem to be more questions this year than most, and yet each category has pretty much a consensus four nominees. It’s that fifth spot in which the fun could happen. 

I’m playing it safer than usual this year, predicting only a few upsets and nominees that the majority of pundits are not. I have backed off my hope that Coogler could get into Best Director, realizing that Lanthimos has a better chance—but I hope to be wrong and very much think a surprise could pop up in the notoriously unpredictable directors group. I still think Marvel has their biggest player to date, by far, with anywhere from 8-11 nominations for “Black Panther.” I think Best Actor could produce a surprise with “Green Book” sliding far enough from the recent backlash for Viggo Mortensen to fall out of a crowded category and John David Washington, Willem Dafoe, or even Ryan Gosling to slide in. Heck, Ethan Hawke could miss there and we'll get two surprises. (Although I'm too much of a wimp to predict it). I think we get a surprise in Best Supporting Actor too and either Sam Elliott or Timothee Chalamet are absent. Although, again, I wouldn’t be surprised if everything drops 100% predictably tomorrow morning. I just kind of hope it doesn’t. That’s the tricky thing about these pieces—I want to be wrong. I’d love for Joaquin Phoenix, Ben Foster, Steven Yeun, and Toni Collette to have a better morning than I’m predicting. But I suspect tomorrow’s list will look at least 90% like this:

BEST PICTURE
"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Roma"
"A Star is Born"
"Vice"

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"
Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
Peter Farrelly, "Green Book"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, "Vice"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"
Ethan Hawke, "First Reformed"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Timothee Chalamet, "Beautiful Boy"
Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Michael B. Jordan, "Black Panther"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Vice"
Claire Foy, "First Man"
Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Leave No Trace"
"A Star is Born"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"The Favourite"
"First Reformed"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"Vice"